The coronavirus’ stock market impact is immense. It is spooking stock markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) shed 12% or over 3000 points over five days, February 24-28, the largest 5-day drop since the Great Recession. The DJIA recorded the biggest single day drop (1191) during that week on February 27.
China is a key player in companies’ supply chain. That’s why analysts fear firms in China won’t deliver parts to companies like Apple and Walmart, which will cause these firms’ results to suffer. The fear of the unknown is causing panic. Stock markets hate uncertainty, and this virus comes with an abundance of uncertainty: When will there be a vaccine? How will countries contain it, and so on?
Coronavirus Stock Market Impact Could Linger
Nobody knows how long the coronavirus’ stock market impact will last. But history shows us that stock markets over-react and then continue their upward momentum. Today, the rapid proliferation of the virus increases fear, so people are over-reacting. We need to pause and not rush to the exit.
Markets recovered quickly from past viral outbreaks. Will the coronavirus’ stock market impact lead to a realized capital loss to you? The market change, per se, does nothing. You lose funds only when you sell below market price. Some firms’ results will suffer in the short-to-medium term because of insufficient inventory. Other companies will gain. Although we do not know the virus’ severity, judging from past market responses, caution is the key response.
Are you a value investor with targeted companies in your portfolio? Examine your goals and stay the course unless you see changes in the firm’s intrinsic value. Have you been speculating, looking to make a quick buck with a margin account? If so, you will have a challenge because banks will call your margin. That’s the inherent risk when you use a margin account to speculate.
If you are not a speculator but a value investor, now could be the perfect time to identify value stocks and select those at bargain prices. There will be several. Whoever you are, be cautious, reject the herd mentality, and reflect on these matters:
Stay The Course
- Review or develop an investment goal and plan before you adjust your portfolio. Why have you been or do you wish to invest? Your reason will decide your investment strategy. My preferred strategy is to buy blue chip equities with a long history of increasing dividends. I hold these shares, review their fundamentals from time to time, and act when there is a permanent change.
- You will find value stocks today. Market fluctuations provide a great opportunity to buy solid companies with good track records. Remember, you lose, or gain on sale only, not when markets fluctuate.
- When your investments’ intrinsic value change, confirm your strategy, and sell your holdings, even at a loss; don’t time the market recovery. The market could be down for several years like the Tokyo Stock Market, which has been below its bubble heights for over two decades.
- Don’t let generic asset mixes influence your asset allotment between stocks, bonds, cash, commodities. You are unique, and your mix should fit you at your life stage. Think before rushing to so-called safe-haven commodity assets such as gold that has no intrinsic value.
- If you are in the retirement red zone, five to seven years to retirement, your goal must be capital preservation, so avoid the stock market.
- Don’t panic: focus on your goals, plan, long term strategy. Update these and ensure they fit your needs and your risk profile.
- This, too, will pass, but God alone knows the timing.
© 2020 Michel A Bell